As an example you would be forgiven for thinking that given how the pound has weakened against the Euro that we should be looking for an increase in the level of exports to the Eurozone. This would of course stimulate our own economy and aid a swifter recovery but unfortunately the Eurozone itself has slipped into recession and retail sales have plummeted. So no respite there then.

Back at home our own national retail trends continue to look bleak. Between August and September, total sales volume decreased by 0.4 per cent. Sales volume in predominantly food stores rose by 0.3 per cent. Sales volume for predominantly non-food stores fell by 1.1 per cent, which includes decreases for textile, clothing and footwear stores and household goods stores at 2.3 per cent and 2.0 per cent respectively. The value of retail sales for the three months to September was 3.5 per cent higher than in the same period a year earlier. Sales volume for the non-store retailing and repair sector rose by 1.7 per cent. (Source: Office of National Statistics Oct 2008)

Hidden in the final statistic there is something that we already know and that is online selling will continue to grow. This trend is not related to the downturn per se but reflects the continued switch in buying channels. I saw a graphic the other day that showed UK online advertising spend rising by a massive 21% despite the austere times in which we currently reside. If ever there was a time to brush up your online offer it has to be now!

So, we are seeing on a national basis overall; a slowdown in sales value growth and a decline in sale volume growth, in other words slightly better prices but a decline in overall numbers of units sold but with online sales continuing to grow as a percentage of the total.

Back in July, I reported that NPD had produced statistics that showed how the nursery trade was bucking the trend. Through their Nursery Tracking Service that records POS of statistics for many of the major multiples and retail chains they have once again recorded figures up to September that show a rosier picture than the overall picture outlined above.

In fact September was the biggest month that NPD have seen in the Nursery Market since they started their tracking service back in January 2007. For September 2008 sales revenue was up 13% year on year and there was a 13% growth year on year for unit sales as well.

This is truly remarkable. We would expect prices to increase with higher import costs (have you seen the state of dollar exchange rate lately) and of course general inflation but what is impressive is the continued growth in sales volume i.e. number of units sold.

In July I was uncertain whether the NPD statistics reflected a trend overall in the market place or whether the larger retailers were gaining market share and the smaller independents were losing out and experiencing a less wonderful time. We undertook a quick business survey of our BPA Retail members, who would generally be more representative of the smaller independent nursery retailer segment, and found at that time that generally they too were experiencing good year on year growth.

Once again I felt that we should corroborate the NPD September findings and therefore undertook our second business review of the year with BPA Retail members. In this review however, we have asked for feedback on the three months of September, October and November compared to the same periods last year.

At the time of writing we are waiting on the results back from this survey but we will update you in the next issue. In the meantime let's hope that the nursery trade continues to fare better than the national performance trends.

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