If the population trends recently published by the Office of National Statistics are anything to go by I think we can expect a healthy demand for baby products over the coming years. We may always be subjected to glitches due to extraneous factors (such as credit crunch etc) but the underlying statistics for the projected level of births remains encouraging.
After years of reduction the average number of children per mother (fertility rate) is set to stabilise and for mothers born in the nineties it is expected that the average family size will be 1.84 children. The projected level of births over the next twenty five years suggests a reassuring level of stability. This has been aided in no small part by the levels of migration both current and projected into the UK.
As with all statistics the level of accuracy tends to diminish the further they are in the future and certainly previous forecasts have seen upward revisions. I think therefore we can assume an average level of births of circa 800,000 per annum certainly for the next quarter of a century. This suggests a sizeable and stable market which must augur well for our industry.
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