We have been building pressure to bring about change to reduce the VAT from 15% to 5%, bringing it in line with the VAT for children's car seats. As of 1st July this year we will see this change take effect.

This victory in reducing the VAT for children's car seat bases goes to show how effective a trade association can be in bringing change that benefits the industry.

Throughout Westminster, Brussels and Strasbourg active and professional trade associations are daily going about their business trying to make a difference for their industry and their members. The trade association is really the most effective way of getting your voice heard and as proven in this year's Budget when we shout loud enough we will be heard!

Currently we are on another campaign. Following years of talking to DTI (now BERR) about the barriers to trade that the UK Furniture and Fire Regulations present to the nursery industry we have taken our campaign up a level and have been engaging the relevant departments in both Westminster and Brussels over recent months.

We have certainly raised awareness and these regulations are now coming under review, we will keep you posted.

Remember, to help the BPA achieve success for the industry it must receive support. This is achieved in part from members' subscriptions, and from income from your industry show BPA Baby & Child. So please ensure you support your show by exhibiting from 11th-13th October 2009.

Show update

We have been receiving frequent requests from potential exhibitors interested in being at the show and those wanting to confirm their stand spaces. Good use has been made of the priority booking discount, as well as BPA members receiving a further discount per square metre of stand space.

The Launchpad is a key area of our show, which gives newcomers to the industry the opportunity to showcase their innovative products. This is not only beneficial to the newcomers; it is also paramount for the growth of the industry. Without these new products and companies, our industry could plateau and be at a loss.

If you are interested in exhibiting at the show please contact Sarah Firth on 0845 456 9580 or email sarah@babyandchildfair.co.uk. You may be eligible for our loyal exhibitor discount if you exhibited at last year's show, or a welcome back discount if you exhibited at one of our shows between 2005-2007.

The show will be held between 11th-13th October 2009 at ExCeL, London. For more information please visit the BPA Baby & Child website at www.babyandchildfair.co.uk.

When will the nation's green shoots start showing?

I am sure by now we have seen so many reports on the Budget and been subjected to so much gloom and doom that we could be forgiven for thinking that there will never be light at the end of the tunnel.

True, the level of Government borrowing is astronomical and forecasted to go higher and how future borrowing turns out in practice will be determined by whether or not the Government's growth assumptions prove accurate. This is one of the key areas of risk in the Chancellor's Budget calculations.

In comparison with other assessments, the Chancellor's Budget predictions of how growth will bounce back in 2010 and 2011 look optimistic.

From a negative growth figure of minus 3.5% this year, the Chancellor is forecasting 2010 and 2011 to be 1.25% and 3.5% respectively, whereas Ernst & Young suggest a neutral 2010 with 2011 being 1.8%. The CBI suggests that growth in 2010 will be 0.1%.

Now we have all heard the famous quote about three levels of lies being "Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics" and I am sure we can expect the Chancellor's growth figures to be bullish given next year is an election year, but it does appear that most are saying that 2010 will see some sort of growth.

Given that the economy as a whole has been in reverse in recent months, for it to start going forward again marks a major change and I think we should look at this as an encouraging sign and stop thinking gloom and doom.

We know our own market always performs better than most other sectors and I think we can therefore expect the growth that we have enjoyed in the nursery products sector over the last twelve months to continue. Margins will continue to be tighter, particularly with the current weakness of sterling increasing costs of imports, but demand for our products in the UK should remain high.

We are not quite Tesco and have had challenges in these difficult times but we will come out of this quicker than most as we have a strong and continuing demand for our products. So for us we should look to the end of this year and beginning of next with an air of optimism and plan accordingly.

Peter D White

Chief Executive

Baby Products Association

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